Obama got his supermajority

Finally it's July and on time for the Independence Day celebrations the United States Senate finally has a hundred members of that most serene body. The protracted court battle in Minnesota ended in Democrat Al Franken's favor, giving Obama the sixtieth seat that enables him to block filibusters in the Senate. There are now 58 Democrats and two independents that caucus with Democrats and only 40 Republican Senators. Last November's election actually resulted in 41 Republicans but since then Arlen Specter has switched parties. Thanks to that one key switch Obama has now a rare opportunity to at least try to block filibusters. Not all Democrats are bound to vote after party line and especially Specter has said he will follow his conscience rather than directions from his new party that also happens to be the party of his youth.

Al Franken lost the original count but won the recount and then went on to prevail in the momentous court battle. He had more votes when all the votes had been counted and recounted, which is hard for any court to overturn. Franken was also ready for the option of the election to be decided by a court even before the votes had been counted. Norm Coleman simply counted on his incumbency and thought that the comedian Franken would be rejected by the voters as a joke. He was wrong and he should have known better given the history of Minnesota where another celebrity, Jesse Ventura, won a gubernatorial election a decade ago.

Al Franken could well turn out to become the biggest celebrity in the entire Congress, an instantly recognizable character as Arnold Schwarzenegger is among the Governors. Obviously he's not even half as famous as Arnie internationally but he certainly is someone the larger public can recognize as a Democrat and as a comedian. For all these months, Franken has been preparing for the new job. He gets to begin his term half a year later than other newcomers but he is finally there, having unseated an incumbent and proven in his court case that the Bush vs. Gore decision has not left a lasting legacy in the United States legal system. Coleman's only hope was the perception of Bush vs. Gore as precedent but that was never going to happen. In this case the recount had been conducted and recounts always take precedence over original counts when such procedures are used. Al Gore did not have a finished recount to hand him victory in the 2000 presidential election.

How long will the supermajority last? It is fully possible that the Democrats will have somewhat less than 60 Senators caucusing with them as soon as January 2011. It is hard to defend your positions when you are the party in power and already hold a very strong margin in seats. Even a long-term incumbent Democrat such as Connecticut's Chris Dodd can be anything but certain of his re-election. Also another party switch might well upset the balance even before end of the 111th Congress. Just as it was at least in the short term worth it for blue state Republican Specter to switch parties, a red state Democrat might do the same in the opposing direction if the GOP is able to offer anything in return. I think that Obama might well hold the balance as it is for a year and a half simply because it is always easier for the majority party to lure a Senator to switch. Only Democrats and those who caucus with them get to chair committees at present.

Al Franken still waiting

Will today finally bring the result that Al Franken has been waiting for, a Minnesota supreme court decision that would allow him to be seated as Senator from The Gopher State? If that will happen, Barack Obama will also get his supermajority. The twists and turns of the whole Franken vs. Coleman saga have been so tiring and boring that the voters in Minnesota surely at this point can't feel that all of this is being done to secure that their every vote counts. Norm Coleman made his point a long time ago. Now it seems his lawyers must have informed him way back when that he stands no chance to win, not even with the argument that the Bush vs. Gore precedent should tilt the case in his favor. That hasn't unfazed him since he's out to keep Al Franken from being sworn in as long as possible. Minnesotans have hade to do with one Senator for five and a half months now. Yes, longer delays have happened in Senate history but that is no excuse to keep this seat vacant any longer than necessary for justice to be done. My sincere impression is that this can't be about justice, it's politics as usual.

Since you never can be sure when the election contest will be over, it might be worthwhile to think about what kind of public servant Al Franken will be when he finally gets his seat. After all, he must be seated rather soon since the court is not politically motivated to favor Coleman. Perhaps the delay will not really be that decisive once Franken gets down to business. He is certainly not the most experienced politician out there but it may be of some advantage to Minnesotans that his is one of the most recognizable political faces in the nation. Like Arnold Schwarzenegger, the ultimate celebrity politician, Franken is bound to gain coverage for his speeches, not just by the local Land of 10,000 Lakes media but by the national media. Sure, Schwarzenegger is widely covered by foreign media outlets and Franken will probably be ignored by them. But the chance to have his initiatives covered all over America is a good thing for Franken and the visibility might make up for the time lost with the vacant seat. As Franken is a rather polarizing figure, the coverage of his first steps on Capitol Hill might also turn out to be 50% negative. But it is fully up to him not to create any scandals.

What does it say about the Minnesota electorate that so many went for a comedian in 2008 just as ten years earlier former wrestler Jesse Ventura was such a vote-getter? I guess it says nothing more than the election of Schwarzenegger says about Californians. Celebrities have been elected before and funny talking heads of today are what sports heroes used to be for previous generations of voters. Al Franken had a strong instant name recognition and he was determined to work very hard to get elected. He was also going to get a huge boost from the tendency of the presidential election and indeed the high turnout. Far from all celebrities get elected and those who do have to fight prejudice and voter apathy.

I don't know what Norm Coleman's future plans will be after this contest. It may be that he has prolonged this contest so long because he himself doesn't have a clue what to do now that he is out of office. At least his lawyers must be happy about his indecision, after all they have been able to dig deep in a landmark case and get nice paychecks for their work. What must frustrate them, though, is the impossibility to win the case. Sure, Bush won against Gore and if these judges had exactly the same ideas about this election as the US Supreme Court Justices had in 2000, Coleman would win. It's just that the decision in the Bush vs. Gore case states that it should not be used as a precedent in similar cases. It was also a different election and not all the circumstances were the same. No matter what, Norm Coleman has come to the end of the road with his court case. It's only up to the panel to deliver that verdict so that this circus will not waste any more of anybody's time.

Obama looking forward to supermajority

As Barack Obama celebrates his first hundred days in office, the prospect of getting a 60-40 supermajority in the United States Senate for his Democrats looks ever closer. Supposedly the Republican victory in the runoff election in Georgia postponed such a possibility by two years. Now, however, Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter has switched parties and the Democrats control 59 seats, one short of the filibuster-proof supermajority. One seat in Minnesota is still disputed even if Al Franken was declared the winner of the recount and a court verdict has already fallen in his favor. As long as Norm Coleman has a higher instance to go to in his claim that the election result is flawed, Franken will still have to wait for his being seated. But once the court case is solved, Franken should deliver the supermajority that the Democrats have been looking for.

Obama warmly welcomed the veteran politician from Pennsylvania to the Democrat fold. Arlen Specter used to be a Democrat in his youth and he has now simply gone back to his original political home. Specter is perhaps even better known for his career as a lawyer than for his achievements during his 28 years as a Republican member of the United States Senate. After all, he developed the single bullet theory as Warren Commission counsel which presented Lee Harvey Oswald as the lone gunman in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. As the defense attorney of murder suspect Ira Einhorn, hippie guru and co-founder of Earth Day, Specter succeeded in getting a relatively low bail for his client. Einhorn then disappeared into France for a period of 22 years before being extradited to the United States to serve his life term in prison.

Arlen Specter made a smart move in switching parties back to Democrat. As a Republican he was very likely to lose in the 2010 primary. As a Republican he was also more likely to lose the general election than he will be as a Democrat. Former Club for Growth president Pat Toomey would at least have had a much easier time in defeating Specter in the primaries than he will have if he is to be the Republican nominee in the general election. It is true that Specter already managed to defeat Toomey in the 2004 primary but he was expecting a much tougher challenge this time around. Anyway the Democrats might now soon get a supermajority that they could hold until the midterm elections. Specter may still be defeated then but there are other states where Democrats might make gains. From Specter's point of view, his situation has changed from desperate to difficult. He is probably more at home in the Democratic Party given the huge animosity he has faced from Club for Growth activists and other Republicans who put ideology first and foremost.

While Obama is happy to have Specter in his team, he can also celebrate the confirmation of Kathleen Sebelius as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Now Obama has his cabinet team complete and ready for action. Even if there was a lot of talk about Sebelius not getting any Republican support, the confirmation vote was a rather easy 65-31. Sebelius will now finally get into the business of reforming health care. She was succeeded as Governor of Kansas by Mark Parkinson, a Democrat who switched his party affiliation from Republican as late as 2006.

Sebelius pays her back taxes

Barack Obama's Health Secretary-designate Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius has announced that she has paid her back taxes now. As the issue of her minor unintentional errors in paying her taxes has been settled, the new cabinet should be clear for action very soon. It is truly a shame that the very important post of Secretary of Health and Human Services has been so hard to fill. After the withdrawal of Tom Daschle Obama settled on Kathleen Sebelius, a very popular Democrat governing a state dominated by Republicans. Senators Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback decided to support the cabinet nomination of their fellow Kansan, especially as Sebelius' new post means she will not be running for the United States Senate seat being vacated by Brownback in the 2010 midterm elections. Representative Todd Tiahrt, who is very much in contention for Brownback's seat, has forcefully announced his dislike of a pro-choice politician being nominated to a cabinet post where the issue matters.

Senators get to vote on Sebelius in the coming weeks and after that every cabinet secretary should be in place. Obama also needs to get the nomination of his Drug Czar-designate Gil Kerlikowske confirmed. The Seattle police chief is taking on one of the toughest jobs in the Obama Administration. But then everybody's job seems to be very tough right now. There will certainly be tougher measures against drug cartels and moves like that to be expected but no-one is expecting miracles on that front. Sebelius, on the other hand, is getting an opportunity to contribute to the transformation of the health care system. She may not have the Washington, D.C. experience of Tom Daschle but Obama is counting on her skills as a communicator to get the message to the American people that an improvement is on the way.

At least Obama got a Secretary of Commerce on the third attempt. Bill Richardson pulled out early on and then Republican Judd Gregg changed his mind as he saw that he couldn't agree with Obama's political agenda. Gary Locke was then confirmed rather easily. One of the highest profiles in the Chinese American community, the former Governor of Washington said that he has "always believed in fair trade". According to Locke "minimum standards" concerning environmental and safety regulations are expected from countries looking forward to trade with the United States. This is obviously meant as something far better than no standards at all. What kind of trade policy this will in practice mean remains to be seen. Obama also had Ron Kirk confirmed as the new United States Trade Representative by a 92-5 vote. Kirk has promised to enforce the current trade rules in his job.

The ease by which Kirk got confirmed promises well for Sebelius. Even Kirk had tax issues, as did Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis. Tom Daschle and Nancy Killefer withdrew their nominations because of tax issues but nothing like that is expected of Sebelius. That so many Obama nominees have had at least minor problems with paying their taxes is probably the most memorable aspect of this confirmation process. In the case of Sebelius the abortion issue will probably not be as significant as expected, either. Representative Tiahrt is simply scoring political points and some of the representatives of the clergy who don't like Sebelius are not being listened to, either. Sebelius decided not to veto a bill in Kansas that would require ultrasound or hearing the fetus's heartbeat before going through with an abortion. She has also said that she is personally against abortions even if she obviously isn't politically against a woman's right to choose.

Tom Daschle withdraws

Tom Daschle is one of the highest-profile Democrats of recent years. A former Senate Majority Leader, Daschle has also strongly profiled himself as an expert on health care reform. As the nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Daschle was expected to bring the needed knowhow to the job and the crucial ability to steer the reform through Congress. His appointment was one of the most important of any that comes Obama's way and the task ahead of him momentous. Now Daschle never got as far as to be confirmed by those former Senate colleagues of his who appreciate his past work. He has withdrawn his name from consideration in midst of a scandal where it turns out he has failed to pay more than a hundred thousand dollars in taxes. "I screwed up", says Obama. Not only has Tom Daschle withdrawn, even Nancy Killefer, who was supposed to take up the new job of White House chief performance officer, has done the same because of her tax troubles.

When Tom Daschle and Bill Richardson were announced among the names in Obama's cabinet, many people assumed that two of the most qualified Democrats were going to hold key jobs in the coming years. Richardson withdrew even before Obama himself was sworn in because of the grand jury investigation he is facing in New Mexico. Now it was the turn of Daschle to fade away. Both the posts of Secretary of Commerce and Secretary of Health and Human Services are still awaiting for an Obama appointee to take over. In the case of Richardson Obama simply decided that if he can't get a qualified Democrat, he'll try with a Republican instead. Senator Judd Gregg is Obama's new surprise choice, giving the cabinet a more bipartisan streak.

Judd Gregg has made it clear that he will accept the cabinet appointment only if Obama is able to see to it that his replacement in the Senate will be a Republican. Governor John Lynch is a Democrat and it is his job to help out with this quirky issue. How he is expected to solve the dilemma is nothing short of amazing. He is going to pick Bonnie Newman, a Republican who supported his gubernatorial campaign, so that the Democrats will not get a supermajority in the Senate but Lynch still gets one of his own supporters, albeit a Republican, for the seat. If Newman is a Lynch supporter, Gregg certainly was no Obama supporter in the presidential election. Bill Richardson was one of Obama's rivals in the primaries and Gregg, the replacement, was sharply critical of Obama during the campaign, trying unsuccessfully to swing the Granite State the way of the Republican Party.

Some appointments always fail but who could have believed that both Richardson and Daschle would lead to scandal and a panic search for replacements at a time when Obama is already in office? Judd Gregg is certainly an interesting choice for Commerce but Daschle will be harder to replace. The health care reform is really getting started in a bad way. Who will be the new nominee? Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas is one possibility. She was one of the names floated around during the vice presidential speculation before Obama settled on Joe Biden.

Nancy Killefer's withdrawal as the chief performance officer nominee sealed the fate of Tom Daschle. After all, Tim Geithner was confirmed as Secretary of the Treasury even though he hadn't paid all his taxes. Yet the Geithner scandal was an embarrassment strong enough to prevent both Killefer and Daschle from taking office. Obama couldn't afford to have a team around him where the best known common characteristic of his officials is their tendency to evade paying taxes. Perhaps what happened to Killefer and Daschle will inspire politicians with ambitions to serve in high offices to pay their taxes. The tax problems of the people Obama originally chose for key posts brings to mind 1993 and Bill Clinton's problems with his Attorney General nominees. Both Zoë Baird and Kimba Wood had to withdraw from consideration after having hired illegal immigrants to look after their children. Baird even had a chauffeur who was an illegal immigrant. Obama at least has had his first choice for Attorney General, Eric Holder, confirmed to that position.

Blagojevich is barred from holding office in Illinois

The Rod Blagojevich scandal has been quite a story. Governor Blagojevich has now not only been impeached by the Illinois House of Representatives and unanimously removed from office by the Illinois Senate, he even has been barred from ever holding public office again in that state. Illinois lawmakers certainly acted within their powers when removing Blagojevich from office and replacing him with Pat Quinn. But the penalty not to ever hold office again seems seems rather heavy given that there is no criminal conviction as yet. Blagojevich will have his day in court answering to all the charges against him and getting him convicted will not be as easy the process of impeachment was. Blagojevich has been accused of trying to sell Obama's seat in the United States Senate to the highest bidder but ultimately he appointed Roland Burris who is not suspected of having taken any bribes.

Right before Blagojevich was forced to leave office, he granted clemency to a real estate developer and to a former drug dealer. The Chicago real estate developer is known for having contributed heavily to political campaigns but not to those of Blagojevich. He is also known for having bought Oprah Winfrey's farm in Indiana in 2005. He had already been pardoned by a previous governor for the crime he committed in his youth but now his conviction will be expunged from public records. The former drug dealer is a janitor at a homeless shelter in Chicago and he had been convicted in 2001, spent a year in prison and now has his conviction expunged from the records as well.

One of the high points of the Blagojevich impeachment trial was a FBI wiretap where the Illinois chief executive discusses with a lobbyist signing a bill diverting a percentage of Illinois casino revenues to the horse racing industry. The issue is whether Blagojevich was paid by a racetrack owner to sign the casino bill. The racetrack owner's lawyer denies that any payoff was made in connection to this phone call and it is not even the racetrack owner himself who is speaking on the phone. The money quote that cost Blagojevich his job is probably the one about how valuable Obama's Senate seat is to him, from a different phone call: "...uh, uh, I'm just not giving it up for f---ing nothing."

Blagojevich is adamant that he is innocent of any wrongdoing. He claimed in an interview with Fox News that the Democrats in Illinois, the people in his own party, wanted to push through a tax increase that he had been against for the last six years. By removing him the income tax will be raised. Blagojevich also says he considered appointing Oprah Winfrey to Obama's seat, even if he's not so sure Oprah would have said yes to such an appointment. He has no idea what he will do now that he is not allowed to hold public office in Illinois. While the impeachment trial was a very quick affair, Blagojevich is now looking forward to his criminal trial that might last for years. Now he will be calling witnesses and one of them might be Obama's chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.

Inauguration is a day of hope

Today is the big day when Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be sworn into office. The whole world is watching and hope permeates the atmosphere, probably more so than what will be the case with any other day in the coming months. The economic crisis is deep and the prospect of achieving world peace is far away. But nothing will be achieved without trying. That is the distinctly American feel about this day and hopefully of others to come, whatever the odds, there will be an effort to achieve change. Obama is to many an embodiment of the American dream and his symbolic importance is great. He is going to be there as a source of inspiration and his well-crafted speeches are expected to raise spirits both in the United States and abroad. Many people who didn't care about politics before are following today's events closely. The start is promising but many difficulties lie ahead.

The successors of both Obama and Biden have now been sworn in as members of the United States Senate. Ted Kaufman took his place as Senator from Delaware quietly and swiftly one day after Biden's resignation. Governor Ruth Ann Minner had announced the replacement for Biden long ago and there was never any serious controversy about the pick. This stands in marked contrast to the circus surrounding Rod Blagojevich in his attempt to make the most of having the power to pick Obama's successor. The seat was vacant for about two months until Roland Burris finally was allowed in with the help of the Illinois Supreme Court. In any case it is a relief for the Democrats to have Kaufman and Burris sworn in and part of the Senate shakeup behind them. Two more changes are expected soon with Ken Salazar and Hillary Clinton vacating their seats in order to serve in the Obama Administration.

While Obama's daughters are too young to build a political dynasty just yet, Joe Biden is already rumored to have plans for his son Beau who is currently serving in Iraq. Ted Kaufman is even seen as someone close to the Biden family who keeps the seat warm in between two Bidens. In 1960 John F. Kennedy resigned after having been elected President of the United States. Benjamin A. Smith II, a friend of his, was appointed as his successor in the United States Senate. Two years later Ted Kennedy was ready to run in the special election, taking the seat back to the family. Beau Biden in 2010 could be an attempt to achieve a similar family seat in Delaware as has been the case with the Kennedy clan in Massachusetts. That arrangement proved durable as Ted Kennedy has kept the seat in the family for over 46 years now. As his health is declining, the Democrats could face a fifth Senate appointment within a matter of months. Family name matters a lot in American politics, which is why a possible future presidential campaign by Jeb Bush, the brother of the outgoing occupant of the White House, should not be ruled out. Despite all the talk of dynasties being built and replaced by others, the victory of Barack Obama is a sure sign of Americans feeling tired of dynasties. Even Joe Biden, who would like his son to make it big, has not made it to where he is today because of a famous family name.

The enthusiasm is great and Barack Obama's inauguration speech will automatically be compared with those by famous predecessors such as Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. There is a feeling that this moment in American history is pivotal. For the Democrats this is an especially great day because many feel a similar change in the political atmosphere as was witnessed when Ronald Reagan replaced Jimmy Carter 28 years ago. Then the change was in a different direction. Yet there were many things that contributed to Reagan's success in getting his agenda through, some of them becoming apparent in the years after he took office. How much Obama will be able to steer the country his way depends on a myriad of factors. But the country listens to him right now as he reaches the peak of his meteoric career. Who could have foreseen that he can defeat Hillary Clinton in the primaries only two years ago? Winning the general election was perhaps easier given that the Democrats were so strong as a party but actually first going up against the party machine and then unifying the party after the bitter primary season was nothing short of miraculous. More of that magic stuff is needed from him to keep the cabinet together and get the best out of all the strong personalities who expect to get their share of the power that now befalls them.